On March 21, the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) released a brief projecting the individuals most likely to obtain health coverage through the national health care reform law’s health exchanges.  The authors estimate that the exchanges will cover 16 million individuals who would be otherwise uninsured and an additional 3.5 million who lost employer-sponsored coverage.  In addition, the brief projects that the exchanges will cover 1.5 million Americans whose employer-sponsored coverage was deemed too costly under health care reform and another 1 million who would otherwise purchase coverage through the individual market.   Finally, the authors estimate that 2 million individuals will obtain exchange-based insurance after losing coverage through Medicaid.  The authors conclude that those purchasing coverage through the exchanges are more likely to be older, less educated, and in poor health than those who are currently privately insured.

From the report:  

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) signed into law in March 2010 calls for the creation of Health Insurance Exchanges (HIEs) in all states by January 1, 2014. These HIEs are intended to facilitate the purchasing of health insurance by individuals and small employers. While all legal residents are eligible to purchase insurance through the Exchanges, the health reform legislation dictates that individuals with incomes between 138% and 400% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) will be eligible to receive sliding-scale Federal subsidies, in the form of tax credits, for the purchase of health insurance through these Exchanges. It is expected that these subsidies, increased purchasing flexibility via the creation of Exchanges, and the inclusion of an individual requirement to purchase health insurance in the legislation will lead to increased insurance coverage among Americans.

Full Report: A Profile of Health Insurance Exchange Enrollees (PDF | 1.19 MB) 

Kaiser Family Foundation. (2011). A profile of health insurance exchange enrollees.