Using data and estimates from the CBO, a Families USA report estimated the state-level effects of Senate’s health care reform bill (HR 3590) on the uninsured, finding that every state will see a significant increase in health insurance coverage under reform and a substantial loss of coverage without reform.  The report found that, by 2019, Arizona, New Jersey, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois, Georgia, New York, Florida, Texas, and California would have the largest gains in coverage under reform and the most substantial losses of coverage without reform.

From the report:

In our current system, millions of Americans are uninsured, and this number has risen over time as more families have been priced out of coverage. In the absence of reform, the crisis of the uninsured will continue to grow. By building on the strengths of our current system, the Senate bill will expand coverage to millions while allowing those who like their current coverage to keep it. It will make coverage more affordable for families by providing assistance with the cost of premiums through sliding-scale subsidies, and it will create new options for purchasing coverage through regulated markets, called health insurance “exchanges” (for more details, see “How the Senate Health Reform Bill Expands Coverage” on page 7). Moreover, the bill will make coverage more stable for all Americans by ensuring that everyone has access to quality coverage, regardless of age or health status. The CBO estimates that these provisions will extend coverage to 31 million people by 2019, the last year for which the CBO has provided data.

Full report: At a Crossroads: Is Health Coverage Ahead for America? (PDF | 796.94 KB)

Families USA. (2009). At a crossroads: is health coverage ahead for America? Bailey, K.