A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report examining the budget outlook for FY2010 through FY2020 found that Medicare costs will increase from $528 billion this year to over $1 trillion by 2020, even if the program implements the scheduled 21 percent physician reimbursement reduction in March.  Released on January 26, the report also finds that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) will cost $75 billion more than the estimated $787 billion, though the ARRA’s Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) increases will cost $3 billion less than originally projected. 

Full Report: The Budget and Economic Outlook Fiscal Years 2010-2020 (PDF | 1.87 MB)

Congressional Budget Office. (2009). The budget and economic outlook Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020.