This May 2009 Urban Institute report examines the ramifications of failure to pass health care reform in the U.S.

From the report:

This report uses the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) to quantify the intermediate and longer-term implications if America’s health care system is not significantly overhauled.  Under a range of economic scenarios, the analysis shows an increasing strain on business owners and their employees over the next decade if reform is not enacted.  There would be a dramatic decline in the number of people insured through employers, and millions more could become uninsured.  There would be large growth in Medicaid/CHIP enrollment and spending, and increased spending on uncompensated health care.  Middle-income working families would be the most affected.

Full report: Health Reform: The Cost of Failure (PDF | 760.17 KB)  

The Urban Institute. (2009). Health reform: the cost of failure. Holahan, J., Garrett, B., Headen, I. and Lucas A.