A Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Office of the Actuary study published February 4 projected U.S. health care spending through 2019, finding that public spending will account for more than half of all national health care spending by 2012.  In addition, CMS projects that all health care spending will grow at an average annual rate of 6.1 percent from 2009 through 2019, faster than the anticipated growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  The report also estimates that national health spending already grew 5.7 percent to reach $2.5 trillion in 2009 despite a projected 1.1 percent decline in GDP.

Truffer, C.J. et al. (2010). Health spending projections through 2019: the recession’s impact continues. Health Affairs 29(3): 522-529. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2009.1074 http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/abstract/hlthaff.2009.1074v1

Authors: Christopher J. Truffer, Sean Keehan, Sheila Smith, Jonathan Cylus, Andrea Sisko, John A. Poisal, Joseph Lizonitz and M. Kent Clemens.