The RAND Corporation has released a brief examining the impact of the national health care reform law on state health costs and coverage rates, estimating costs and coverage rates for California, Connecticut, Illinois, Montana, and Texas.  Using a simulation model, RAND projects state health costs and uninsurance rates for 2011-2020, comparing them to projections based on the absence of the national health care reform law.  Generally, the authors found that the law will significantly improve coverage while increasing state costs.  However, RAND projects reduced costs in Connecticut because subsidized coverage will become available to residents that the state would otherwise insure through a state health program.

From the report:

In most cases, the majority of new Medicaid enrollees will be newly eligible, but increased enrollment of those previously eligible will cost the states more because the federal government heavily subsidizes newly eligible enrollees.  Total state government health care spending will increase in four of the states. Spending will decrease in Connecticut because some low-income individuals previously covered under the state's own insurance plan will now be covered under Medicaid, and the federal government will pay a large portion of their costs.

Full report: How Will Health Care Reform Affect Costs and Coverage? Examples from Five States

RAND Corporation.  (2011).  How will health care reform affect costs and coverage?  Examples from five states.