This four-part report series released by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured calculates how many uninsured Americans could gain coverage through variations of health reform being currently being considered in Congress.

From the reports:

Non-Elderly Uninsured: If Medicaid were expanded to 133 percent of the FPL and subsidies were provided to those with income between 133 and 399 percent of the FPL, an estimated three quarters of the 43.9 million non-elderly uninsured would be eligible for financial assistance in obtaining coverage. Specifically, some 38.7 percent would be eligible for Medicaid and 37.2 percent would be eligible for subsidies to purchase coverage. Fewer than ten percent of the uninsured have income of at least 400 percent of the FPL and would not qualify for subsidies. Another 14.2 percent are non-citizens who would not be eligible due to their authorization status or because they have resided in the United States for fewer than five years.

Childless Adults:  In 2007, 25.1 million non-elderly childless adults were uninsured, accounting for 57.2 percent of the uninsured non-elderly in the United States. Under the reform options modeled here, 38.4 percent of uninsured childless adults or 9.6 million would be eligible under a Medicaid expansion to 133 percent of the FPL. Another 37.5 percent or 9.4 million have incomes between 133 and 399 percent of the FPL and would be eligible for subsidies to purchase insurance in a reformed market. Eleven percent or 2.8 million would not be eligible for either a Medicaid expansion or a subsidy due to their income being at least 400 percent of the FPL, but would still be required to purchase coverage under an individual mandate. Another 13.0 percent of uninsured childless adults would also not be eligible for Medicaid or subsidies because they are either unauthorized immigrants or authorized immigrants who have been in the country for less than five years

Full reports:

• Non-Elderly Uninsured (PDF | 389.31 KB)
• Uninsured Parents (PDF | 344.39 KB)
• Uninsured Childless Adults (PDF | 357.54 KB) 
• Uninsured Children (PDF | 1.8 MB)

Urban Institute (2009). How will the uninsured be affected by health reform? Dubay, L. and Cook, A.