Actuaries from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published a study in Health Affairs projecting national health care spending under the national health care reform law.  The study updates projections made in February before the law was passed.  The authors estimate that average annual health spending growth will be 0.2 percent higher as a result of reform, increasing to 6.3 percent. 

From the executive summary:

This paper presents updated national health spending projections for 2009–2019 that take into account recent comprehensive health reform legislation and other relevant changes in law and regulations. Relative to our February 2010 projections under prior law, average annual growth in national health spending over the projection period is estimated to be 0.2 percentage point higher than our previous estimate. The health care share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 0.3 percentage point higher in 2019. Within these net overall impacts are larger differences for trends in spending and spending growth by payer, attributable to reform’s many major changes to health care coverage and financing.

Full Report: National Health Spending Projections: The Estimated Impact Of Reform Through 2019 (PDF)  

Health Affairs. (2010). National health spending projections: the estimated impact of reform through 2019. Sisko, A., Truffer, C., Keehan, S., Poisal, J., Clemens, M., and Madison, A.