Using a model for projecting long term healthcare spending which differs from the model utilized by government projections, this article offers 75-year healthcare spending estimates and Medicare actuarial balance projections.  The model presented in this article predicts slower growth in spending and lower Medicare actuarial deficits than the government model.   

Borger, C., Rutherford, T. F., & Won, G. Y. (2007). Projecting long term medical spending growth. Journal of Health Economics, 27(1): 69-88. DOI:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.03.003    

Authors: Christine Borger, Thomas F. Rutherford, Gregory Y. Won