This RAND Corp. report analyzes the Senate health care reform bill (HR 3590) estimating the effects of the legislation through 2019.  The report considers insurance coverage, government spending, and financial risks to consumers.  According to RAND, the number of uninsured will decrease by 53 percent, or 29 million people, leaving 25 million uninsured by 2019. Under the bill, government spending would increase by $899 billion, largely funding the Medicaid eligibility expansion and health insurance subsidies. The report also found that the individual mandate would cause the newly insured to spend more on health care than previous years but face fewer high-cost expenditures and receive more services. RAND estimated that an individual mandate without penalties for remaining uninsured would reduce the number of newly insured by 10 million.

From the report:

National health expenditures would increase as a result of the insurance coverage policies contained in H.R. 3590. The increase in health expenditures arises as previously uninsured people take up coverage and increase their utilization of health care services. We estimate that the additional U.S. personal health care expenditures associated with the implementation of H.R. 3590 would be $548 billion, cumulatively from 2010 to 2019 (see Table 2). According to the projections of National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), cumulative U.S. personal health care spending will be $22.5 trillion over the same period. Therefore, under H.R. 3590, U.S. personal health care spending will increase by 2% over the period 2010–2019 (see Figure 6).

Full report: Analysis of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590) (PDF | 229.35 KB)

RAND Corporation. (2010). Analysis of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590).