This CMS Office of the Actuary report released on January 11 analyzes the Senate’s health care reform bill (HR 3590) as passed by the Senate on December 24, updating a report released on December 10 which examined the effects of the November 18 legislation.  The updated report finds that, by 2019, 34 million residents would receive coverage under the bill, three million more than under CBO projections.  In addition, CMS found that the bill would cost $882 billion over the next decade, up from the CBO’s projection of $871 billion.  Finally, the report found that health care spending would increase 0.6 percent ($222 billion) over 10 years under the bill, down from the 0.7 percent ($234 billion) increase that CMS projected in December. 

From the report:

By calendar year 2019, the mandates, coupled with the Medicaid expansion, would reduce the number of uninsured from 57 million, as projected under current law, to an estimated 23 million, under the PPACA.  The additional 34 million people who would become insured by 2019 reflect the net effect of several shifts.  First, an estimated 18 million would gain primary Medicaid coverage as a result of the expansion of eligibility to all legal resident adults under 133 percent of the FPL.

Full report: Estimated Financial Effects of the PPACA as Passed by the Senate on December 24, 2009 (PDF | 550.4 KB)

US Department of Health and Human Services. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Office of the Actuary. (2010).  Estimated financial effects of the "patient protection and affordable care act," as passed by the Senate on December 24, 2009.