This Urban Institute paper uses the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model to examine the impact on insurance coverage in all 50 states in the absence of reform. 

From the Report:

In each state, the share of the non-elderly population that is uninsured increases as does the share with Medicaid/CHIP coverage.  At the same time, the shares with ESI and non-group coverage fall.  These overall findings are consistent with the national results, but changes in coverage rates differ among states.  The main findings for coverage are:

• In the worst case, the number of uninsured would rise by at least 10 percent from 2009 to 2019 in every state. In 29 states, the number of people without insurance would increase by more than 30 percent.
• In the best case, 34 states would face increases in their uninsured populations of more than 10 percent from 2009 to 2019. Nine states would see increases in the number of uninsured of more than 20 percent.
• In the worst case, every state would see reductions in the share of their populations with ESI coverage of more than 4 percentage points from 2009 to 2019. Half of the states would see the number of people with ESI coverage fall by more than 10 percent.
• In the best case, 16 states would see declines in the share of the population with ESI coverage of more than 2 percentage points from 2009 to 2019.
• In the worst case, Medicaid/CHIP enrollment would increase by more than 25 percent from 2009 to 2019 in 33 states. Even in the best case, 13 states would face increases in Medicaid/CHIP enrollment of more than 20 percent from 2009 to 2019.

Full report: The Cost of Failure to Enact Health Reform: Implications for States (PDF | 1.83 MB)

The Urban Institute Health Policy Center (2009). The cost of failure to enact health reform: implications for states. Garrett, Bowen; Holahan, John; Doan, Lan; and Headen, Irene.