An Urban Institute report found that the Senate’s health care reform legislation (HR 3590) would reduce uncompensated care costs from $62.1 billion in 2009 to $46.6 billion by 2019.  Without health care reform, the report projects that uncompensated care costs will reach $107 to $147 billion by 2019.  In addition, the report estimates that uncompensated costs would total $330 billion between 2014 and 2019 under the Senate bill but would reach $560 to $700 billion without reform.

From the report:

Both the Senate and House health reform proposals will dramatically reduce the number of uninsured as well as the amount spent on uncompensated care. If health reform is not enacted, the number of uninsured will increase significantly, as will uncompensated care burdens. We estimate that the cost of uncompensated care will fall from $62.1 billion in 2009 to $46.6 billion in 2019 under the Senate bill, and to $36.5 billion in 2019 with the House bill. The impact on uncompensated care of the large reductions in the uninsured is somewhat offset by increases in health care costs. Without reform, the cost of uncompensated care will increase to between $107 and $141 billion in 2019, depending on growth in the economy and health care costs. We estimate that from 2014 to 2019, uncompensated care costs would be $330 billion with the Senate bill and about $240 billion under the House bill. In contrast, the cost of uncompensated care over the same period without reform would be between $560 and $700 billion. The budget implications for state and local governments are substantial.

Full report:  The Cost of Uncompensated Care With and Without Health Reform (PDF | 273.91 KB)

The Urban Institute.  (2010).  The cost of uncompensated care with and without health reform.  Holahan, J. and Garrett, B.