This report published by the Center for Labor Research and Education at the University of California (UC) Berkley found that a 40 percent excise tax on “Cadillac” insurance plans would have significant effects on non-union members.  The report notes that, under both the Senate health care reform bill’s (HR 3590) tax and the modified tax plan endorsed by the White House in January, at least 80 percent of affected plans would cover non-union members in 2019.  In addition, if employees stay in their current health plans, 23 percent would be subject to the Senate bill’s tax in 2019 while 14 percent would be affected under the more labor-friendly deal reached by the White House.

From the report:

We estimate that by 2019, 14.1 percent of workers would be in plans subject to the excise tax under the proposed amendment, compared with 23.0 percent under the Senate-passed bill. These estimates are based on the 2008 and 2009 Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Education Trust Employer Health Benefits Survey.

Full report:  Who Benefits from the Proposed Amendment to the Senate Excise Tax on Employer Health Premiums? (PDF | 175.32 KB)

University of California, Berkley. Center for Labor Research and Education. (2010). Who benefits from the proposed amendment to the Senate excise tax on employer health premiums? Jacobs, Ken; Dow, William H.; Graham-Squire, Dave; and Tan, Laurel.